Search Results

German establishments heavily rely on the apprenticeship system for skill supply. With one in four apprenticeship contracts ending before successful completion, it is in the interest of establishments and policy-makers to determine factors, which reduce non-completion. This paper investigates the role of apprenticeship wages and income prospects after completion for apprenticeship non-completion in Germany. For this purpose, this study identifies incidences of apprenticeship non-completion in a large sample of administrative data on employment biographies and estimates a piecewise exponential model of the non-completion hazard with shared frailties by occupations. The results suggest a robust and significant association with both apprenticeship wages and skilled worker wages. All else at means, apprenticeships which are paid 5 per cent more than the mean apprenticeship wage, on average have a 0.8 percentage points higher estimated survival rate. In turn, an apprenticeship expected to lead to a skilled job that is paid 5 per cent above average, has an estimated survival rate, which is 3.1 percentage points higher on average. These findings highlight the importance of income prospects for apprenticeship non-completion.

Published abstract. Show less

The fourth wave of qualifications and occupational field projections prepared by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) provide a summary of the German labour market's expected development up to 2035. New challenges are being presented, particularly against the background of the massive refugee migration in 2015. The direct effects of this initial rise in the population figures include higher levels of state spending and changes in the demand for housing and educational services. However, labour supply will only grow with some delay. If current educational and employment patterns continue and working times do not increase, medium-term population growth will not be sufficient to avoid long-term shortages in the area of skilled tasks. This especially affects persons who have completed vocational education and training. On the contrary, in the area of high qualifications, the labour supply shows a stronger long-term increase than demand for skilled workers for complex tasks and highly complex tasks.

Published abstract. Show less

The [Federal Institute for Vocational Training/German Institute for Employment Research] BIBB-IAB qualification and occupational field projections describe the labour demand and supply development until 2030. This discussion paper includes the underlying data, methods and assumptions of the third wave of the long-term BIBB-IAB qualification and occupational field projections ([Qualifikation und Beruf in der Zukunft] QuBe project). Taken into account in the present third wave was the increased future net immigration as a consequence of the European economic crisis. In addition, empirically founded dynamic interaction processes between labour supply and demand by qualifications and occupations have been modelled for the first time. On the demand side, for example, the available occupation-specific labour supply in persons and hours is taken into account when determining wages for the respective occupations. On the supply side, the advantages of the two hitherto applied supply models BIBB-FIT and BIBB-DEMOS have been combined in one supply model and the wage elasticity coinciding with occupational flexibility has been estimated at the same time.

Published abstract. Show less